Welcome to the official start of the 2026 season! This is the first year with 6 players across two pods, but drafting seems to have gone off without a hitch. Today is the “week 0” games and the first week of our game starts on Thursday.
Before the start I thought I’d like to recap where we stand and summarize the draft.
Draft report
To set the stage, lets look at who all players drafted:
| Pick number | Bruce | Bob | Dan | Dylan | Jacob | Zach |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | Georgia | Notre Dame | Ohio State | Notre Dame | Oregon |
| 2 | Texas Tech | Miami | Oregon | Georgia | SMU | Miami |
| 3 | BYU | Indiana | Western Michigan | Houston | Texas Tech | Indiana |
| 4 | LSU | Boise State | Clemson | Penn State | Toledo | Boise State |
| 5 | SMU | Utah | Texas A&M | Clemson | Texas A&M | LSU |
| 6 | UNLV | James Madison | Ole Miss | Navy | Delaware | BYU |
| 7 | Penn State | Texas | Navy | James Madison | Tennessee | Jacksonville State |
| 8 | San Diego State | Liberty | Louisiana | Liberty | South Florida | UConn |
| 9 | UTSA | Toledo | New Mexico | San Diego State | UNLV | UTSA |
| 10 | Old Dominion | North Dakota State | Alabama | North Dakota State | Virginia | Texas |
| 11 | Jacksonville State | Houston | Iowa State | Alabama | Miami (OH) | Western Michigan |
| 12 | Miami (OH) | Louisville | Oklahoma | Arizona | Iowa | New Mexico |
| 13 | Fresno State | Michigan | Cincinnati | Texas State | Old Dominion | Marshall |
| 14 | Memphis | South Florida | Kennesaw State | California | Kansas State | Michigan |
| 15 | USC | East Carolina | Ohio | Ole Miss | Fresno State | South Carolina |
| 16 | Tennessee | Hawai’i | TCU | Memphis | Washington | Utah |
| 17 | Missouri | Kansas State | Florida State | USC | Tulane | Arkansas State |
| 18 | Virginia | Western Kentucky | Air Force | Western Kentucky | Ohio | Louisville |
| 19 | Middle Tennessee | Marshall | App State | UCF | Nebraska | Army |
| 20 | Arizona State | Tulane | Oregon State | South Alabama | Nevada | Kennesaw State |
| 21 | NC State | Central Michigan | Army | Oklahoma | Vanderbilt | Troy |
| 22 | Nevada | Pittsburgh | Sam Houston | North Texas | Missouri State | Utah State |
| 23 | Troy | Iowa | Colorado | Air Force | TCU | Buffalo |
| 24 | Washington State | Texas State | Northern Illinois | Louisiana | Oregon State | Virginia Tech |
| 25 | Buffalo | Florida | Georgia Tech | Washington State | Pittsburgh | Arizona State |
| 26 | Virginia Tech | Washington | Florida Atlantic | NC State | East Carolina | Florida Atlantic |
| 27 | Louisiana Tech | Arizona | UTEP | Kansas | Illinois | Hawai’i |
| 28 | North Texas | Delaware | Utah State | Duke | Southern Miss | Florida |
| 29 | West Virginia | South Carolina | Illinois | Central Michigan | Sacramento State | Eastern Michigan |
| 30 | South Alabama | Arkansas State | Colorado State | Wisconsin | Baylor | Wake Forest |
For a 1-90 draft order by pod, see the supplementary tables below.
Using these draft numbers, we’ll look at some trends about team strengths and how we collectively viewed these teams and conferences.
Draft results by player
To get a first glance at how each roster stacks up superficially, we can
take all teams’ FPIs and add them up. The table below shows the total and average FPI of every player’s total roster:
| Player | Pod | Total roster FPI | Average FPI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob | White Pod | 137.1 | 4.57 |
| Dylan | Orange Pod | 106.4 | 3.55 |
| Jacob | Orange Pod | 94.5 | 3.15 |
| Zach | Orange Pod | 89.1 | 2.97 |
| Bruce | White Pod | 71.8 | 2.39 |
| Dan | White Pod | 29.0 | 0.97 |
But average doesn’t mean much when you’re barely playing about half the teams each week. We can also create a “starting lineup” for each player based on those FPI measures. For each player, I’ve slotted in a theoretical lineup based on our scoring format (top from each conference, then next 3 best P4 and 2 best G6 teams, then best remaining). Based on the sums of FPIs, the best projected average lineup is Bob with an FPI of 138.9. You can see the full results in the table below:
| Player | Pod | Starting-lineup FPI (16 slots) |
|---|---|---|
| Bob | White Pod | 138.9 |
| Zach | Orange Pod | 127.1 |
| Bruce | White Pod | 113.6 |
| Dylan | Orange Pod | 113.2 |
| Jacob | Orange Pod | 107.6 |
| Dan | White Pod | 103.1 |
Next, we can look at the “bench” for each player, or the FPI of their remaining 14 teams. Bob again has the highest:
| Player | Pod | Bench FPI (remaining 14 teams) |
|---|---|---|
| Bob | White Pod | -1.8 |
| Dylan | Orange Pod | -6.9 |
| Jacob | Orange Pod | -13.1 |
| Zach | Orange Pod | -38.1 |
| Bruce | White Pod | -41.8 |
| Dan | White Pod | -74.1 |
Of course, this is a very shallow prediction – FPI in the early season isn’t very valuable with no data to base it on, and it doesn’t account for the game, and even when it’s got data it’ll be of limited value because of the huge variance in game-to-game results.
Warning: Dangerously shoddy methodology projections
As I said, FPI isn’t a super great metric to base predictions on at this stage. But let’s just go for it. In this section, I’ve made a really rough roster-strength screener. I got the FPI measure for both teams in every FBS game this season (and put in a flat -30 for FCS opponents). For each game, I added +1.5 FPI to the home team and -1.5 to the away team to account for home-field advantage. Then, for every game where the favorite had at least a +1.0 adjFPI advantage, I added that advantage to the player total who owned them. The table below shows the total favorable FPI of all teams for each player for all games where they have an FPI advantage.
| Player | Pod | Favorable adj-FPI edge | Favorable games | Edge excl. FCS | Games excl. FCS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bob | White Pod | 3310.4 | 254 | 2358.0 | 228 |
| Jacob | Orange Pod | 3057.0 | 234 | 2131.9 | 208 |
| Zach | Orange Pod | 3025.3 | 225 | 2063.4 | 197 |
| Dylan | Orange Pod | 2890.6 | 221 | 2003.4 | 195 |
| Bruce | White Pod | 2867.8 | 220 | 2007.4 | 194 |
| Dan | White Pod | 2563.0 | 191 | 1653.6 | 163 |
By that metric, the top team this year is Notre Dame with a +282 (owned by Jacob and Dan), followed by Texas Tech at +258 (Jacob and Bruce), Indiana at +252 (Bob and Zach), and Ohio State at +250 (Bruce and Dylan).
One thing to look out for as the season progresses is how schedules line up. It’s possible that some of us may have a lot of really favorable games but they fall on weeks where they can’t all be played, leaving a lot of points orphaned.
Draft results by team and conference
The more interesting details, in my mind, are looking at the draft and seeing how the six of us collectively ranked and prioritized these teams.
There was very strong consensus across the top of the board: the top 5 teams were the same, just shuffled, and of the next 5 there were 3 that were only 1 pick different between pods. Below are the top 10 (in this section, teams were score 90-0 where first pick got 90, last pick got 1, and undrafted teams got 0).
| Rank | Team | Conf | Orange pts | White pts | Total pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | P4_IND | 90 | 89 | 179 |
| 2 | Ohio State | B1G | 88 | 90 | 178 |
| 3 | Oregon | B1G | 89 | 86 | 175 |
| 4 | Georgia | SEC | 87 | 88 | 175 |
| 5 | Miami | ACC | 86 | 87 | 173 |
| 6 | Texas Tech | B12 | 84 | 85 | 169 |
| 7 | Indiana | B1G | 83 | 82 | 165 |
| 8 | SMU | ACC | 85 | 78 | 163 |
| 9 | Boise State | PAC | 80 | 81 | 161 |
| 10 | BYU | B12 | 74 | 84 | 158 |
There were 34 teams that went undrafted in both pods, and 28 teams that went undrafted in one pod. Of that 28, these are the top 10 teams that were picked in one pod but not the other:
| Team | Pick | Drafted by |
|---|---|---|
| UConn | 23 | Zach (Orange Pod) |
| Iowa State | 32 | Dan (White Pod) |
| Cincinnati | 38 | Dan (White Pod) |
| California | 40 | Dylan (Orange Pod) |
| Missouri | 49 | Bruce (White Pod) |
| Florida State | 50 | Dan (White Pod) |
| Nebraska | 55 | Jacob (Orange Pod) |
| Middle Tennessee | 55 | Bruce (White Pod) |
| App State | 56 | Dan (White Pod) |
| UCF | 57 | Dylan (Orange Pod) |
The clear outlier here is UConn, picked a full 9 spots higher than the next highest singleton and solidly in the top 1/3 of the draft. Overall, it seems like the White Pod was more likely to reach on some of these teams that we were less in agreement about, with 4 of the next 5.
There are also some notable disagreements among teams that both pods drafted. The clear winner in this regard is Delaware, who was drafted 64 spots higher in Orange Pod than White Pod. The biggest disagreements are shown in this table:
| Team | Conf | Orange pick | White pick | Gap (spots) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delaware | CUSA | 18 | 82 | 64 |
| Louisiana | SBC | 70 | 23 | 47 |
| Arizona | B12 | 34 | 81 | 47 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 44 | 87 | 43 |
| Arkansas State | SBC | 50 | 88 | 38 |
| Hawai’i | MWC | 80 | 46 | 34 |
| East Carolina | AAC | 78 | 45 | 33 |
| Iowa | B1G | 36 | 69 | 33 |
| South Alabama | SBC | 58 | 90 | 32 |
| Utah | B12 | 47 | 15 | 32 |
All of these teams are probably going to be pretty bad, so there’s not a lot of damage done here. But this may be an example of the opportunity cost of these picks; the player that picked them might have been able to get a better team elsewhere and still picked up this one later in the draft.
Here you can see all the picks vs FPI which represents the trend nicely. In the early picks, not only is there a higher percentage of high FPI picks early, but the correlation is much stronger. As we get to the later rounds, there’s still an obviously downward trend, but the correlation is so loose it’s probably statistically insignicant (I didn’t do the math, just eyeballed it).
There’s a noticeable cluster of highly picked but not super high FPI teams, highlighed in the red ellipse. These could be teams to look out for; they probably had a lot of talent but a lot of question marks, so if things come together they could be good for a ton of points, or they could be this year’s version of 2025 Penn State.
Draft results by conference
Next, we can look at how we all drafted the conferences. It should surprise no one that the SEC and the Big Ten are head-and-shoulders ahead of the pack, reflecting that the “P4” is more like “P2, and also 2 pretty good conferences.” But because both are so big and so good at the top, they actually had a lower pick rate – between the 6 of us, we only picked 12 SEC and 11 Big Ten teams (out of 16 and 18, respectively) but we picked 8/10 C-USA and Mountain West, all but one Big 12 team, and every Pac “12” team (8/8, obviously). The table below lists the conferences by total pick points:
| Conference | Tier | Teams picked | In conference | Total pick points | Avg pts / picked team | Avg pick # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC | P4 | 12 | 16 | 1204 | 100.3 | 36.3 |
| B1G | P4 | 11 | 18 | 1052 | 95.6 | 38.4 |
| B12 | P4 | 15 | 16 | 1045 | 69.7 | 45.6 |
| ACC | P4 | 13 | 17 | 928 | 71.4 | 46.8 |
| AAC | G6 | 9 | 14 | 749 | 83.2 | 49.4 |
| SBC | G6 | 10 | 14 | 621 | 62.1 | 54.5 |
| CUSA | G6 | 8 | 10 | 598 | 74.8 | 45.0 |
| MWC | G6 | 8 | 10 | 589 | 73.6 | 48.9 |
| PAC | G6 | 8 | 8 | 589 | 73.6 | 51.7 |
| MAC | G6 | 8 | 13 | 568 | 71.0 | 50.4 |
We picked the ACC and Big 12 surprisingly low, which reflects (and possibly validates) my belief that those conferences are really a crapshoot beyond Miami and Texas Tech. There are so many teams in each that are nearly interchangeable that it’s better for the mechanics of this game to pick the G6 teams with the higher marginal value of getting the decent G6 teams before they’re gone and you’re stuck with something abysmal.
That is more apparent in this next table. In this table, I’ve switched from the average to the top n teams in each conference (top single team, top 2 teams, top 4 teams, and top 8 teams):
| Conference | Tier | Top 1 | Top 2 | Top 4 | Top 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1G | P4 | 178 | 353 | 671 | 996 |
| SEC | P4 | 175 | 331 | 618 | 1057 |
| ACC | P4 | 173 | 336 | 590 | 826 |
| B12 | P4 | 169 | 327 | 587 | 870 |
| AAC | G6 | 146 | 277 | 489 | 721 |
| MAC | G6 | 143 | 285 | 484 | 568 |
| PAC | G6 | 161 | 292 | 467 | 589 |
| MWC | G6 | 139 | 265 | 446 | 589 |
| SBC | G6 | 145 | 260 | 436 | 602 |
| CUSA | G6 | 138 | 269 | 433 | 598 |
This, again, at least confirms that I’m not alone but also possibly validates my opinion that the Big Ten has overtaken the SEC in the elite, top of conference teams, but the SEC is deeper and has the best middle group of teams of any conference. And it also puts the conferences in roughly an order that would be hard to debate (SEC and Big Ten above all, ACC and Big 12 below them but well above the G6, and American well above the rest of the G6).
Here is a graphic representation of how the conferences stacked up. The G6 FPIs show why raw FPI totals aren’t necessarily a perfect metric. If you overdraft P4 teams, you could have a lot of relatively higher FPI teams sitting on the bench every week and open spots in the G6.
Next up
With all that said, the season is about as predictable as the weather so it may very well turn out that none of us know what we’re talking about and these picks were all terrible. But that’s the fun of sports and this game.
As previously stated, week 0 starts today. Between us, every game has at least one team owned by one player, and in 3/8 games both teams are owned in both pods. Several of us will be banking points and all of us will be getting some data on at least a few of our teams. These games (and their teams’ respective owners) are:
- Eastern Michigan (Zach) vs Sacramento State (Jacob)
- Florida State (Dan) vs New Mexico State (unowned)
- North Dakota State (Bob, Dylan) vs Jacksonville State (Bruce, Zach)
- Stanford (unowned) vs Hawai’i (Bob, Zach)
- TCU (Dan, Jacob) vs North Carolina (unowned)
- USC (Bruce, Dylan) vs San José State (unowned)
- Virginia (Bruce, Jacob) vs NC State (Bruce, Dylan)
- UNLV (Bruce, Jacob) vs Memphis (Bruce, Dylan)
Week 1 starts Thursday, September 3, with 11 Thursday night games and goes through the Labor Day game on Monday, September 7.
My picks for games of the day this week (week 1)
- Thursday – only 1 game looks even remotely intriguing – Colorado @ Georgia Tech (7/11 games are FBS vs FCS, and 2 of the 3 FBS games feature UMass and Akron who might actually be worse than some of the FCS teams)
- Friday – San Jose State @ Eastern Michigan – both are dark horse possiblities to win their conferences or at least be competitive, and it’s the only game with a single digit spread. Side note: only one other game has a <20 spread, and that’s Toledo at Michigan State (MSU-10). Mel Tucker really blew that program up; how hard is it to just be normal?
- Saturday – Boise State @ Oregon(afternoon), Clemson @ LSU (primetime), UNLV @ Hawai’i (late night)
- Sunday – only day where all the games look at least decent, my pick would be Louisville @ Ole Miss which is literally the only ranked vs ranked matchup of the whole weekend (side note – what are we even doing here if that’s possible!?). But Wisconsin @ Notre Dame has an outside chance; Wisconsin could be a sneaky good team.
- Monday – only one game on Monday, SMU @ FSU
Matchups for week 1
- Bob vs Zach
- Bruce vs Jacob
- Dan vs Dylan
Conclusions
No conclusions, just wanted to get your attention to say good luck and have fun! Looking forward to a great season.
Supplementary tables
The full 1–90 pick order for each pod, referenced above.
Orange Pod — full draft order
| Pick | Player | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob | Notre Dame |
| 2 | Zach | Oregon |
| 3 | Dylan | Ohio State |
| 4 | Dylan | Georgia |
| 5 | Zach | Miami |
| 6 | Jacob | SMU |
| 7 | Jacob | Texas Tech |
| 8 | Zach | Indiana |
| 9 | Dylan | Houston |
| 10 | Dylan | Penn State |
| 11 | Zach | Boise State |
| 12 | Jacob | Toledo |
| 13 | Jacob | Texas A&M |
| 14 | Zach | LSU |
| 15 | Dylan | Clemson |
| 16 | Dylan | Navy |
| 17 | Zach | BYU |
| 18 | Jacob | Delaware |
| 19 | Jacob | Tennessee |
| 20 | Zach | Jacksonville State |
| 21 | Dylan | James Madison |
| 22 | Dylan | Liberty |
| 23 | Zach | UConn |
| 24 | Jacob | South Florida |
| 25 | Jacob | UNLV |
| 26 | Zach | UTSA |
| 27 | Dylan | San Diego State |
| 28 | Dylan | North Dakota State |
| 29 | Zach | Texas |
| 30 | Jacob | Virginia |
| 31 | Jacob | Miami (OH) |
| 32 | Zach | Western Michigan |
| 33 | Dylan | Alabama |
| 34 | Dylan | Arizona |
| 35 | Zach | New Mexico |
| 36 | Jacob | Iowa |
| 37 | Jacob | Old Dominion |
| 38 | Zach | Marshall |
| 39 | Dylan | Texas State |
| 40 | Dylan | California |
| 41 | Zach | Michigan |
| 42 | Jacob | Kansas State |
| 43 | Jacob | Fresno State |
| 44 | Zach | South Carolina |
| 45 | Dylan | Ole Miss |
| 46 | Dylan | Memphis |
| 47 | Zach | Utah |
| 48 | Jacob | Washington |
| 49 | Jacob | Tulane |
| 50 | Zach | Arkansas State |
| 51 | Dylan | USC |
| 52 | Dylan | Western Kentucky |
| 53 | Zach | Louisville |
| 54 | Jacob | Ohio |
| 55 | Jacob | Nebraska |
| 56 | Zach | Army |
| 57 | Dylan | UCF |
| 58 | Dylan | South Alabama |
| 59 | Zach | Kennesaw State |
| 60 | Jacob | Nevada |
| 61 | Jacob | Vanderbilt |
| 62 | Zach | Troy |
| 63 | Dylan | Oklahoma |
| 64 | Dylan | North Texas |
| 65 | Zach | Utah State |
| 66 | Jacob | Missouri State |
| 67 | Jacob | TCU |
| 68 | Zach | Buffalo |
| 69 | Dylan | Air Force |
| 70 | Dylan | Louisiana |
| 71 | Zach | Virginia Tech |
| 72 | Jacob | Oregon State |
| 73 | Jacob | Pittsburgh |
| 74 | Zach | Arizona State |
| 75 | Dylan | Washington State |
| 76 | Dylan | NC State |
| 77 | Zach | Florida Atlantic |
| 78 | Jacob | East Carolina |
| 79 | Jacob | Illinois |
| 80 | Zach | Hawai’i |
| 81 | Dylan | Kansas |
| 82 | Dylan | Duke |
| 83 | Zach | Florida |
| 84 | Jacob | Southern Miss |
| 85 | Jacob | Sacramento State |
| 86 | Zach | Eastern Michigan |
| 87 | Dylan | Central Michigan |
| 88 | Dylan | Wisconsin |
| 89 | Zach | Wake Forest |
| 90 | Jacob | Baylor |
White Pod — full draft order
| Pick | Player | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruce | Ohio State |
| 2 | Dan | Notre Dame |
| 3 | Bob | Georgia |
| 4 | Bob | Miami |
| 5 | Dan | Oregon |
| 6 | Bruce | Texas Tech |
| 7 | Bruce | BYU |
| 8 | Dan | Western Michigan |
| 9 | Bob | Indiana |
| 10 | Bob | Boise State |
| 11 | Dan | Clemson |
| 12 | Bruce | LSU |
| 13 | Bruce | SMU |
| 14 | Dan | Texas A&M |
| 15 | Bob | Utah |
| 16 | Bob | James Madison |
| 17 | Dan | Ole Miss |
| 18 | Bruce | UNLV |
| 19 | Bruce | Penn State |
| 20 | Dan | Navy |
| 21 | Bob | Texas |
| 22 | Bob | Liberty |
| 23 | Dan | Louisiana |
| 24 | Bruce | San Diego State |
| 25 | Bruce | UTSA |
| 26 | Dan | New Mexico |
| 27 | Bob | Toledo |
| 28 | Bob | North Dakota State |
| 29 | Dan | Alabama |
| 30 | Bruce | Old Dominion |
| 31 | Bruce | Jacksonville State |
| 32 | Dan | Iowa State |
| 33 | Bob | Houston |
| 34 | Bob | Louisville |
| 35 | Dan | Oklahoma |
| 36 | Bruce | Miami (OH) |
| 37 | Bruce | Fresno State |
| 38 | Dan | Cincinnati |
| 39 | Bob | Michigan |
| 40 | Bob | South Florida |
| 41 | Dan | Kennesaw State |
| 42 | Bruce | Memphis |
| 43 | Bruce | USC |
| 44 | Dan | Ohio |
| 45 | Bob | East Carolina |
| 46 | Bob | Hawai’i |
| 47 | Dan | TCU |
| 48 | Bruce | Tennessee |
| 49 | Bruce | Missouri |
| 50 | Dan | Florida State |
| 51 | Bob | Kansas State |
| 52 | Bob | Western Kentucky |
| 53 | Dan | Air Force |
| 54 | Bruce | Virginia |
| 55 | Bruce | Middle Tennessee |
| 56 | Dan | App State |
| 57 | Bob | Marshall |
| 58 | Bob | Tulane |
| 59 | Dan | Oregon State |
| 60 | Bruce | Arizona State |
| 61 | Bruce | NC State |
| 62 | Dan | Army |
| 63 | Bob | Central Michigan |
| 64 | Bob | Pittsburgh |
| 65 | Dan | Sam Houston |
| 66 | Bruce | Nevada |
| 67 | Bruce | Troy |
| 68 | Dan | Colorado |
| 69 | Bob | Iowa |
| 70 | Bob | Texas State |
| 71 | Dan | Northern Illinois |
| 72 | Bruce | Washington State |
| 73 | Bruce | Buffalo |
| 74 | Dan | Georgia Tech |
| 75 | Bob | Florida |
| 76 | Bob | Washington |
| 77 | Dan | Florida Atlantic |
| 78 | Bruce | Virginia Tech |
| 79 | Bruce | Louisiana Tech |
| 80 | Dan | UTEP |
| 81 | Bob | Arizona |
| 82 | Bob | Delaware |
| 83 | Dan | Utah State |
| 84 | Bruce | North Texas |
| 85 | Bruce | West Virginia |
| 86 | Dan | Illinois |
| 87 | Bob | South Carolina |
| 88 | Bob | Arkansas State |
| 89 | Dan | Colorado State |
| 90 | Bruce | South Alabama |